长江三角洲碳排放与植被覆盖耦合协调时空格局及影响因素分析     

刘崇刚  孙伟  张落成 《地理科学》2023,43(1):142-151

通过构建评价指标体系和分析框架,利用综合指数法、耦合协调度模型和灰色关联度模型分析2005―2017年长江三角洲（长三角）碳排放与植被固碳耦合协调时空变化特征及驱动因素,并模拟政府决策优先级对耦合协调度趋势的影响。结果表明：长三角碳排放空间集聚特征显著,基本形成了以长江沿线和长三角东南沿海区域为核心的沿江沿海高排放带;长三角碳排放与植被固碳耦合协调度具有明显的空间分异特征,呈现出南京-上海沿线一般失调区域为核心的圈层结构特征;植被覆盖综合评价值高于碳排放综合评价值的地区耦合协调度普遍较高,人口的集聚和变化、城市建设和能源消耗对耦合协调度影响最大;同时,政府决策的优先级会显著影响耦合协调趋势。  相似文献   

Are We There Yet? A Roadmap to Understanding National Park Service Rulemaking     

Jeffrey J. Cook 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(12):1257-1270

The preproposal stage of the rulemaking process is notoriously understudied, but enormously important in determining regulatory outputs. Recently, Rinfret (2011c Rinfret , S. R. 2011c . Frames of influence: U.S. environmental rulemaking case studies . Rev. Policy Res. 28 ( 3 ): 231 – 245 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) analyzed the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) rulemaking process and developed a frame analysis model to interpret stakeholder influence during the preproposal stage. Rinfret argues that stakeholders use three frames to influence agency rulemaking, including an expertise, a fiscal feasibility, and an information frame. This article tests this model to determine whether it is applicable to other federal agencies such as the National Park Service (NPS). Through an analysis of stakeholder framing within the 2012 NPS Yellowstone Winter Use Rule, this research confirms that Rinfret's model is indeed applicable to the NPS process. Therefore, this research suggests that this theoretical model examining stakeholder influence is applicable to other public land agencies, and arguably can be applied across the bureaucracy.  相似文献   

基于产业规制视角的区域煤化工产业发展制约因素关联度分析——以新疆为例     

李莉  郑旭东  冉启英 《地域研究与开发》2014,(6)

"十二五"期间国家加大了对煤化工行业的产业规制力度,要求产业发展必须与资源环境保护并重。运用灰色关联分析模型对区域煤化工产业的制约因素进行研究,选取新疆进行实证分析,得到的关联度矩阵和耦合度曲线均表明,区域煤化工产业的发展与资源、环境及配套条件等制约因素的关联程度十分紧密。定量分析结果表明,区域煤化工产业的发展在配备必需的资金、交通和市场条件的同时必须重视资源和环境对产业的制约作用,并将其纳入到产业项目的规划之中。  相似文献   

汉江上游3200-2800aBP特大古洪水重建研究(英文)     

查小春  黄春长  庞奖励  周亚利 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,24(3):446-456

Palaeoflood hydrology study is a leading subject in global change study. Through field investigation in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River, palaeoflood slackwater deposits(SWD) were found in the bedrock gorges of the Yunxi reach. The results of field observation, laboratory analysis including particle-size distribution and magnetic susceptibility, and comparison with modern flood deposits, the SWD were identified as the most typical Holocene palaeoflood deposits of the Hanjiang River. By using stratigraphic correlation and OSL dating method, the palaeoflood event was dated to be 3200–2800 a BP at the turn from the middle to late Holocene. According to the palaeoflood peak stage and hydraulic parameters, the peak discharges of the palaeoflood were reconstructed as 48,830–51,710 m3/s by using the slope-area method. At same time, the flood peak discharges of 1983, 2005 and 2010 severe floods were reconstructed with the same method and hydraulic parameters in the same cross section. The error between the reconstructed and gauged discharges was 1.99%–4.21%. This showed that the reconstructed palaeoflood peak discharges were reliable. The flood peak discharge-frequency relationship at 10,000-year time scale was established by a combination of the gauged flood, historical flood and palaeoflood hydrological data. These results are very important for hydraulic engineering and flood mitigation on the Hanjiang River.  相似文献   

黄河银川平原段河岸摆动速率变化及其影响因素(英文)     

王随继  李玲  程维明 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,(4)

It is important to examine the lateral shift rate variation of river banks in different periods. One of the challenges in this regard is how to obtain the shift rate of river banks, as gauging stations are deficient for the study of river reaches. The present study selected the Yinchuan Plain reach of the Yellow River with a length of 196 km as a case study, and searched each point of intersection of 153 cross-sections(interval between two adjacent cross-sections was 1.3 km) and river banks in 1975, 1990, 2010 and 2011, which were plotted according to remote sensing images in those years. Then the shift rates for the points of intersection during 1975–1990, 1990–2010 and 2010–2011 were calculated, as well as the average shift rates for different sections and different periods. The results show that the left bank of the river reach shifts mostly to the right, with the average shift rates being 36.5 m/a, 27.8 m/a and 61.5 m/a in the three periods, respectively. Contemporarily, the right bank shifts mostly to the right in the first period, while it shifts to the left in the second and third periods, with the average shift rates being 31.7 m/a, 23.1 m/a and 50.8 m/a in the three periods, respectively. The average shift rates for the left and right banks during the period 1975–2011 are 22.3 m/a and 14.8 m/a, respectively. The bank shift rates for sections A, B and C are different. The shift rate ratio of the left bank in the three sections is 1:7.6:4.6 for shift to the left and 1:1.7:3.8 for shift to the right, while that of the right bank is 1:1.8:1.2 for shift to the left and 1:5.6:17.7 for shift to the right during the period 1975–2011. Obviously, the average shift rate is the least in section A, while it is maximum in section B for shift to the left and in section C for shift to the right. The temporal variation of the shift rate is influenced by human activities, while the spatial variation is controlled by the local difference in bank materials.  相似文献   

气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾西辉  张强  陈晓宏  江涛 《热带地理》2014,(6)

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。  相似文献   

基于上市公司网络的长三角城市网络空间结构研究   总被引：24，自引：8，他引：16  

李仙德 《地理科学进展》2014,33(12):1587-1600

公司内部网络研究是当前城市经济网络研究的重要内容.本文利用2005、2010年长三角A股上市公司企业网络数据库,运用社会网络分析方法、位序—规模分析法等,分析了2005、2010年长三角城市网络空间结构演变及其主要影响因素.研究发现:①长三角上市公司总部沿沪宁—沪杭—杭甬Z字形轴线集聚,从一主(上海)二副(杭州、南京)三中心向一主(上海)三副(杭州、苏州、南京)四中心空间结构演变;苏州超过南京成为第三大企业总部集聚中心.②长三角城市网络核心—边缘结构整体延续,Z字形轴线城市维持核心地位,具备强大的网络权力与威望.③长三角城市网络除等级扩散、邻近扩散等特征之外.还具有明显的行政地域性.主要体现在省会南京、杭州分别成为江苏、浙江省内外上市公司子公司的重要据点;尤其是南京凭借省会优势,中心度仍然高于总部职能较强的苏州.④在长三角经济一体化背景下,跨行政地域性的联系有所加强,特别是上海、苏南向苏中、苏北的扩散明显;浙西南仍是网络相对封闭、孤立的地带,中心度相对较低.⑤行政等级和区划,市场容量等是长三角城市网络空间结构的主要影响因素,而到上海高速公路时间距离、劳动力成本和土地成本的影响在统计上未通过显著性检验.  相似文献   

岷江上游“7·10”泥石流对公路的危害方式及成因     

邹强  郭晓军  朱兴华  孔应德 《山地学报》2014,32(6)

2013-07-10,岷江上游暴发大型群发性泥石流灾害,泥石流以淘刷、冲击、淤塞、压顶、磨蚀等方式对地震灾区公路直接造成严重破坏,其引发的溃决洪水、河床上升增大受灾范围,加重了灾害损失。分析了泥石流对道路工程的成灾方式:对桥梁工程破坏包括淤塞、淘蚀基础、冲毁等;对路面路基工程破坏包括淤埋、淘刷路基、冲毁等;对隧道工程破坏包括堵塞隧道洞口,破坏洞口墙体并引起衬砌支护结构破坏,损毁隧道内附属设施等;对明洞、棚洞工程破坏包括堵塞洞口、冲毁洞口结构,磨蚀洞顶,压顶并引起衬砌支护结构破坏,损毁排水、通风、电力附属设施等。分析了泥石流造成道路严重损失的原因,其中,公路工程选址不当、风险估计不足,桥涵过流净空不足,泥石流防灾措施不完善,泥石流的严重冲刷、冲击作用是主要原因。针对泥石流危害公路的特征和地震区泥石流防治中存在问题,提出了地震山区公路在灾后重建与道路规划中的减灾措施。  相似文献   

Using a Bayesian estimator to combine information from a cluster analysis and remote sensing data to estimate high-resolution data for agricultural production in Germany     

Alexander Gocht  Norbert Röder 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(9):1744-1764

In Germany, a county-resolution data set that consists of 35 land-use and animal-stock categories has been used extensively to assess the impact of agriculture on the environment. However, because such environmental effects as emission or nutrient surplus depend on the location, even a county resolution might produce misleading results. The aim of this article is to propose a Bayesian approach which combines two sorts of information, with one being treated as defining the prior and the other the data to form a posterior, used to estimate a data set at a municipality resolution. We define the joint prior density function based on (i) remote sensing data, thus accounting for differences in county data and missing data at the municipality level, and (ii) the results of a cluster analysis that was previously applied to the micro-census, whereas the data are defined by official statistics at the county level. This approach results in a fairly accurate data set at the municipality level. The results, using the proposed method, are validated by the national research data centre by comparing the estimates to actual observations. The test statistics presented here demonstrate that the proposed approach adequately estimates the production activities.  相似文献   

泛长三角城市土地利用效益测度及时空格局演化   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张荣天  焦华富 《地理与地理信息科学》2014,30(6)

以泛长三角地区为研究区域,从经济、社会、生态3维度构建城市土地利用效益指标体系,运用改进熵值法测度1995-2013年城市土地利用效益值;并通过ESDA分析技术、耦合度及多元回归模型等方法对泛长三角城市土地利用效益时空格局演化及机理进行了初步探讨。结果表明:1)1995-2013年泛长三角城市土地利用效益整体上呈提升趋势,且效益"南高北低、东高西低"差异显著;2)相邻城市单元表现出较弱的空间集聚特征,效益热点区主要分布在苏锡沪和宁杭地区,向皖江、绍甬地区演化,而效益冷点区主要集中在皖北地区;城市土地利用效益系统的耦合度不高,处于拮抗阶段向磨合阶段演化,仅个别城市效益系统耦合较好,呈"点"状形态分布;3)泛长三角城市土地利用效益时空格局演化主要受城市化水平、经济发展程度及土地市场化3个主要驱动力综合作用及影响。  相似文献